The impact of North Korea’s expanding nuclear program in East Asia

Last November, the North Korean (NK) UN ambassador informed about the speeding up of the country’s nuclear program in order to “counter any threat presented by hostile nuclear weapons states.” This doesn’t come as a surprise, especially in this very moment when tensions are as high as ever between NK and its southern neighbor and nemesis, South Korea. The impact of the increasing presence of North Korean nukes has been felt across all East Asia, not only by South Koreans; countries like Japan, the United States and even Kim Jong-Un’s allies like China or Russia have adapted their relations with NK due to the ongoing situation.

The North Korean nuclear program began in the 1960s in the context of the Cold War, when the international order was racing up to get the bomb on the verge of destruction. In order to survive in such a polarized world, NK could not stay out of the nuclear arms race so, with the help of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), the country developed a nuclear reactor at Yongbyong’s nuclear facility, which marked the starting point of the NK nuclear program.

However, it wasn’t until the 1980s, when the country began to independently pursue nuclear weapons. Despite agreements like the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which NK joined in 1985 under international pressure, its covert ambitions continued and expanded. In 2002, Pyongyang confirmed the development of a secret uranium enrichment program in clear violation of the NPT and, hence, NK withdrew from the NPT in 2003.

The surprise came in 2006 when, on October 8th, NK shocked the world by carrying out its first nuclear test, which took place underground. The explosion was so intense it created an aftershock of 4.2 magnitude that was felt, ironically, across all the Korean Peninsula. The situation has continued on the same downward path ever since. Despite global attempts to force NK into non-proliferation negotiations such as the failed 2019 US-NK talks, the country has been using its nuclear power as a diplomatic banner worldwide. As proof of this, NK recently launched an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile(ICBM) that fell near the northern coast of Japan.

The current state of North Korea’s nuclear (and other) arsenal

No one can know for sure how many nukes make up the North Korean ‘Pandora’s box’ but, as of 2024, it is believed that NK possesses at least 50 nuclear warheads and have the required capabilities to build another 70-90. Besides this, it has been found that Kim Jong-Un’s regime has also worked on an advanced biological weapons program. It is also worth recalling NK’s ICBM capability, as previously mentioned, which can easily target the US; and the recently reported Nuclear Submarine Program, which would create NK’s first nuclear-powered submarine. Both imply a tremendous threat, not only to the East-Asian region but, given its far reaching capabilities, to the entire world.

Impacts of North Korea’s nuclear program

South Korea

It is fair to begin analyzing NK’s threatening strategy towards its neighboring country, South Korea, which has encountered a constant offensive policy from Pyongyang’s regime. In January 2024, Kim Jong-Un announced that its country would no longer pursue the reunification of Korea, setting an end to the era marked by soft approaches followed since the end of the Korean War in 1953.

As of today, South Korea lacks any nuclear missiles so, in response to the aggressiveness from Pyongyang’s growing arsenal, Seoul has been forced to react and adopt certain measures. To begin with, the country has been increasing its military spending, which now has reached an all-time high of $44.6 billion, addressed to modernize and enlarge its defense strategies. For example, South Korea recently acquired highly advanced SM-3 missiles that may also act as maritime ballistic missile interceptors. As investment in military defensive systems grows, other sectors, such as healthcare or education, suffer, which perfectly reflects how NK’s nuclear program might affect and influence the region.

The nuclear threat has brought Seoul and Washington together for deeper security ties and, besides conducting joint military exercises, there has been an increasing presence of at least 24,000 US troops in Korean soil acting as deterrence. If there wasn’t any nuclear threat, the government of South Korea would not have to dedicate so much time and resources to coordinating these situations. South Koreans could hence focus more on growing their economy and taking care of social problems such as their decreasing birth rates.

The internal political landscape has also been influenced. On one hand, conservative voices have advocated for a hardline stance, pushing for stronger military measures, deeper US alignment, and even debates about developing South Korea’s own nuclear weapons. On the other hand, liberals have often favored diplomacy, especially by seeking dialogue with NK. For example, former President Moon Jae-in promoted the inter-Korean talks, which aimed to foster cooperation for de-escalation of tensions. This division of approaches shapes South Korea’s policies, reflecting a nation torn between deterrence and diplomacy in the face of an unpredictable and nuclear-armed neighbor.

Japan

To the east of the Korean Peninsula, we find Japan, who also suffers the consequences of the North Korean nuclear program and sees itself forced to react to the constant threat posed by Pyongyang against the survival of the Japanese nation. The end of the Second World War forced Japan to rewrite its Constitution, setting on its article 9 the prohibition to maintain an army, navy or air force. This rule conditioned Japan’s military situation until 2022, when the government released its National Security Strategy, announcing deep changes on its defense policies towards rearming. This document outlined Japan's comprehensive security policies, including its assessment of regional threats such as North Korea's missile and nuclear programs, highlighting their repeated ballistic missile tests, including those capable of reaching Japan.

The Japanese have justified this change by arguing it is compatible with Article 9 of its Constitution through reinterpretation rather than amendment. While Article 9 renounces war and prohibits maintaining armed forces, Japan’s government has justified its military expansion as necessary for self-defense under international law. Thus, Japan has now vowed to raise its defense budget to 2%, which implies a significant amount of 7.7 trillion Japanese yen (for comparison it barely reached 5 trillion yen in 2021).

The continuation of this promised increase has come along even across different governments of Japan: the new prime minister Shigeru Ishiba recently renewed the pledge to continue building up his country’s defense and to deepen its alliance with the United States under President Donald Trump, in order to protect Japan from the constant threat from China, Russia and of course, North Korea.

It is clear that this change in the Japanese military policy, which prevailed intact for almost 77 years, comes as a reaction to the North Korean hostile actions, but also to an increasingly aggressive world where every country must be ready to defend itself.

China

China surprisingly has not taken a different reaction than its other regional neighbors. Even though the Chinese are definitely not under the same type of pressure nor threat as the South Koreans or the Japanese, that has not forced China, a close ally to Kim’s regime, to express concern for the North Korean nuclear program. China views North Korea as a buffer state against the US influence in East Asia; for the Chinese, North Korean nuclear ambitions create an evident regional instability, which collides with China’s preference for a stable neighborhood.

However, that is the official version of the Chinese and apparently it is only the tip of the iceberg. This suspicion comes because, despite having significant influence over Pyongyang, China often refrains from exerting pressure to curb North Korea’s nuclear activities. Also, though the Chinese supported the sanctions regime towards NK’s nuclear program, they seem to be behind its failure. International reports point to Beijing and the possibility they are aiding a broke North Korea evade a wide range of international sanctions, designed specifically to harm Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program. It would make sense for the Chinese to adapt this position in reality, as destabilizing Kim’s regime could lead to a unified Korea aligned with the United States on China’s border, something definitely threatening for the Chinese.

China has seen itself forced to adapt and wield a double-sided sword, trying to maintain peace while keeping a good image towards the world, and secretly supporting North Korea in order to favor its survival and hence, the security of Xi Jinping’s nation.

What’s ahead

We must face reality and assume the future will not bring a much more positive situation for the East Asian region. We are heading towards a multi-polarized world, where countries will have to react in order to survive. Kim Jong Un’s increasing aggressiveness and how its neighbors are adapting is a clear reflection of how the region is changing and taking positions for a soon to come dangerous scenario.