En la imagen
Looking east from Asia to the Pacific. Satellite map with national flags over corresponding countries. A small white cross marks the Taiwan Strait [NASA]
The Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) destroyer JS Sazanami (DD-113) passed through the Taiwan Strait on September 25, 2024. This was the first time a Japanese warship went through the Taiwan Strait, one of the most disputed areas in East Asia. What does it mean for the China-Japan relations.
Japan’s decision to send a destroyer through the Taiwan Strait suggests the purpose to underline that it considers the strait to be an international strait, meaning it would be subject to freedom of navigation under the UNCLOS (United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea), similar to other international straits. This is a way of thinking which is aligned with the US and other Western allies who have participated regularly in this exercise of freedom of navigation. It is also a way of indirectly challenging the territorial claims of China. Naturally, the PRC (People’s Republic of China) greatly condemned this movement.
The security issue in the region is worsening. China has been getting bolder with its military movements, as proved with incidents such as the violation of Japanese airspace by an intelligence-gathering aircraft last August. Additionally, a week before the JMSDF passed through the Taiwan Strait, a Chinese aircraft approached Japan’s shores within 24 nautical miles for the first time in history.
Lately, the relations between China and Japan have been growing tense. Their relationship has always been complicated but, because of these recent military maneuverings, diplomacy between these countries is becoming increasingly difficult.
Japan-China relations
Delving into a deeper analysis of the relationship between these nations, theirs is one strongly influenced by history. Starting with Japan’s invasion of China and the wartime crimes committed during that period such as the Nanjing Massacre. This history has left its marks and is still present now, especially because Japan refuses to acknowledge and apologize for their war crimes. China and South Korea have protested multiple times the visits and offerings made to Tokyo’s Yasukuni Shrine, which contains commemoration of 14 convicted war criminals.
In spite of this complicated past, they have had strong economic and diplomatic bonds for more than 50 years. Four major documents were signed following the normalization of China- Japan relations in 1972, these documents constitute the basis of their relation. Then during the 1970s and 1980s, Japan helped China’s modernization process through investment, technological transfer, and economic aid. This cooperation resulted in economic growth for both countries and helped to stabilize their relations as well as increase their interdependence, especially later when ASEAN was created.
However, nowadays, some issues in regard to trade and technology have worsened their stability. For example, Japan has placed export restrictions on 23 types of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, in an alignment with the U.S. policy to block their advancement which would result in an improvement of China’s military capabilities. Even though China was not explicitly targeted, this is expected to obstruct their companies’ access to cutting-edge chipmaking technologies. On the other hand, China banned all Japanese seafood imports in 2023 as a result of the release of the Fukuoma treated wastewater.
Another subject of contention is Japan’s relationship with the United States and being included in its security umbrella. In 1951, the US-Japan Mutual Security Treaty was signed, which ensured that in case of an attack, the United States would defend Japan. This allowed Japan to focus on its economic development instead of its military capabilities. Since then, there have been multiple meetings and alliances between both nations that have extended their partnership. Some examples are the Quad, composed by the United States, India, Japan and Australia or the recent US-Japan-Philippines trilateral summit in 2024.
Lastly, there was further deterioration in Japan-China relations between 2008 and 2012 due to the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands issue. This dispute centers on debated territorial claims by China, Japan and Taiwan over uninhabited Islands in the East China Sea. There were efforts to stabilize the situation in 2014 and in 2018, the then-Prime Minister Abe Shinzo visited China which showed willingness to improve. Xi Jinping was scheduled to, in return, visit Japan in 2020 but could not due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Then, their relationship worsened even more because of the growing tensions between China and the United States, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Nevertheless, their economies remain heavily connected. China is Japan’s largest trading partner while Japan is a major provider of technology and investment to China. The main difficulty in their relationship is maintaining a balance between their economic benefits and security disputes.
Chinese assertiveness
The reasoning behind this unprecedented move by Japan has been, among other reasons, the increasingly aggressive actions of China in the East China sea and in the South China sea. After the Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te visited US territories in the Pacific like Hawaii and Guam, the PRC reacted strongly. They opposed it by launching a military exercise in which they deployed their largest naval fleet in decades in waters near Taiwan. This movement covered a larger geographical area than the ones before and included Japan, Taiwan, parts of the Philippines and Indonesia. It extended through the First Island Chain and included practicing for a possible blockade. China’s aggressiveness in its claiming of the territories is becoming more of a concern for the stability of the region, especially for Japan due to its proximity and territorial disputes.
Regarding security, Japan can rely on the United States and their relationship lately has been good and stable. In April of last year, former president Biden and former Prime Minister Kishida made a joint statement in which they anticipated a “new era of US-Japan strategic cooperation,” with special emphasis on improving military cooperation and creating modern defense technologies. However, with the recent elections in the United States, resulting in Trump as the president, there is uncertainty about how this will affect their partnership and the actions they have taken in countering China.
The biggest worry for the Japanese government is Trump's insistence on increased tariffs as he threatened to increase global tariffs up to 20% during his presidential campaign. He might also pressure Japan to negotiate a trade deal as what happened in his first term. During his first administration, Trump expressly demonstrated his discontentment with the US-Japan Security Treaty and other problems. Additionally, it is expected that Trump’s administration will demand its allies to increase their defense spending, especially regarding the cost of the US forces in Japan.
Trump’s complexity and possible China new ways
Japan is not the only country that is weary; China’s economy is slowing down and if Trump carries out his campaign promises, the Chinese will have to pay higher tariffs on exports to the US. The United States is also starting to limit overseas investment and if Trump continues that policy, China might start to look for business prospects elsewhere. China’s strategists may see this as an opportunity to regain their relationship with some American allies like India and Japan.
Although there are doubts of this relationship progressing much due to Ishiba’s government weakness, as he lacks a majority in the House of Representatives.
In conclusion, the relationship between Japan and China is one of complex dynamics where history plays a huge factor as well as their current disputes. Nevertheless, we might see an improvement in their relationship especially economically after Trump’s return with his protectionist agenda. But while they might grow closer economically to compensate for the US’s agenda, the territorial disputes are not so easy to solve, and it is one area in which China has proved persistent.